THE SYSTOCRAT PAPERS

Once again, the Democratic Party is demonstrating that although they have the superior talent, they just don't have the game plan or the moxie to win the big one.  Oh, I understand that there's still eight months to go, but after the botched campaigns of 2000 and 2004, we can all see the handwriting on the wall, can't we?

The canary is dead, people.  The fat lady hasn't started singing yet, but she has been spotted in the parking lot of the Pepsi Center in Denver, falling down drunk with a corndog in each hand.

Make no mistake about it, the Dems are once again headed for disaster.  This time, however, the DNC has apparently decided to do itself in, saving the GOP the trouble and expense of having to rely on the ambiguity of hanging chads or a swiftboat-powered coup.

Let's state the obvious first.  The nominating contest has gone on too long, and most Democrats have become too attached to one candidate or the other.  One of these folks has to lose, and the DNC is still trying to figure out how to unite the party after that happens.  A large percentage of potential Dem voters are going to be disappointed either way, but it's obviously better if they're disappointed now, with several months to get over it.  Although Howard Dean has talked about brokering a deal between the candidates to end the contest well before the convention in August, the DNC has otherwise done nothing to reassure Democrats that the situation will be resolved in time to salvage any remaining vestige of party unity.  On the contrary, the DNC, by their conspicuous lack of foresight, has only confused the situation further. 

Case-in-point - the absurdity of the Michigan/Florida situation.  Of course voters are disenfranchised by the DNC's decision to discount these contests!  The obvious point to be made here is that the DNC made the decision to disenfranchise these people months ago, and it was just as wrong then as it is now.  After it became clear that these "meaningless" contests might afford Hillary an advantage, she made it her business to have these delegates seated at the convention.  To compound its first mistake, the DNC then decides to reconsider this issue, claiming that voters are being disenfranchised and that these delegates need to be seated, one way or the other.  Of course, nobody can agree on how this can be done fairly, if it should be done at all, or who should pay for it.  The bottom line is that the DNC should have considered the defensibility of its decision to strike these contests before that decision was made.  

Obviously Florida is an important state in the general election.  More important than its 27 electoral votes, we know from past experience that elections can be won or lost (or even hijacked) there.  Michigan boasts another 17 electoral votes.  Between these two states, the combined 44 electoral votes constitute approximately 16 percent of the 270 votes needed to claim victory in November.  Maybe I'm talking crazy here, but in my estimation Americans don't react well when their votes are deemed irrelevant, another issue that the DNC should have considered before decommissioning these primaries. 

Now the Democrats have a real mess on their hands, and some of the party faithful are eyeing the door.  Like Paul Cejas and Christopher Korge, two wealthy Floridians who want to see the state's delegates seated at the convention.  The NYT reported the other day that Cejas has asked the DNC for $27,500 in contributions back because his vote is not being counted, and that Korge is prepared to ask for the return of $140,000 in donations to the DNC if the Florida delegate situation is not resolved to his satisfaction.  I'm sure Cejas, Korge and other Floridians were thrilled by the announcement by Karen Thurman, head of the Florida Democratic Party, that the mail-in vote option has been cancelled, especially with no viable alternative on the horizon and the fate of the Florida delegates now firmly in the hands of the do-nothing DNC.  Here's a prescient statement issued by Bill Nelson, Dem state senator from Florida, in response to Ms. Thurman's announcement:
 

"For months I have been pushing for the national Democratic party to count Florida's primary and seat the state's delegates. My fight has been based on the simple premise that in America every citizen has an equal right to vote -- and to have that vote count. One way or another, Florida's voice must be heard in the decision-making process. It's imperative that national party leaders participate in finding a solution. Otherwise Democrats appear headed for a political train wreck that could involve a floor fight at the convention over recognizing Florida's delegates. That runs the risk of alienating a key battleground state in the run-up to the November elections."

If nothing changes between now and then, there are several likely ways that the Democratic National Convention will end in a big, fat mushroom cloud.  A nasty fight over the seating of the Michigan and Florida delegates.  Obama losing the nomination due to superdelegates, Florida, Michigan, some combination of all three, or as the result of some other negative tactic that has yet to be unveiled, this despite entering the building with a lead in the popular vote, delegates and states won.  Hillary losing the nomination despite the fact that she's somehow entitled to the top spot on the ticket now, not eight years from now. 

The fat lady could not be reached for comment, but I'll bet she just got a call from her booking agent, advising her that the August gig in Denver is looking more and more like a sure thing.

Here's a radical thought.  If the Democrats blow this one, the future of the party may well be in jeopardy.  No question that this election is the Democrats' to lose.  The sitting "dead duck" president ("lame duck" just doesn't quite capture his essence, does it?), with his impeachment-caliber approval rating, is responsible for what is arguably the most inept, ineffective, shortsighted administration in the history of this country.  However, regardless of the collateral facts involved, in recent history the Democrats have somehow managed to lose two presidential contests to Dead Duck Dubya.  With all that's at stake in 2008, if the Democrats can't get their act together now, perhaps its time for another team to get in the game, a team that can win the big one.

Cross-posted at The Huffington Post - Off The Bus

Posted by Tom Douglas at 10:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I am keenly aware of historical ironies whereby would-be conquerors are destroyed from within by those who overreach as a result of their desire to attain their objective.     The examples are endless: the needless expansion of the Roman empire to untenable proportions; Napoleon in Russia; the Nazis in Russia; the Japanese at Midway, General Custer at Little Big Horn, etc. 

One of my favorite examples is the Confederates at Gettysburg.  The reader will recall that in 1863, the seemingly invincible Army of Northern Virginia invades the North, crossing into Pennsylvania in an effort to bring about a decisive conflict that will end the war.  By sheer accident, the battle is joined when the Confederates, operating blind due to the absence of their cavalry, blunder into their Union counterparts near the small railroad junction of Gettysburg.  After two days of heavy fighting, General Lee, who up until that point in the war had conducted a brilliant campaign with substantially less men and materiel, makes the decisive blunder of the war by sending General Pickett's division across over a mile of open ground, right into the teeth of a Union line that is entrenched on high ground.  The result is a massacre that, along with the surrender of the besieged garrison at Vicksburg, Mississippi a day later to U.S. Grant, breaks the back of the Confederacy. 

Since "Junior Tuesday" did not prove decisive for the Democrats, those who have been following this lengthy nominating contest must be wondering just what it will take to break the Hillary campaign.  Although she must now capture something on the order of 64% of all remaining delegates to win the nomination, she refuses to admit the hopelessness of her cause, petulantly continuing to wage a selfish, unwarranted "scorched earth" campaign that, instead of clearing her way to the nomination, will instead leave the Democratic Party's November aspirations in ashes.   Given her slim chance to overtake Senator Obama in the delegate count, at least by above-board means, she has clearly put her own ambitions ahead of the best interests of the Democratic Party and the country that she aspires to serve as Chief Executive. 

However, Ms. Clinton may have finally dealt her own campaign a potentially fatal blow by in effect endorsing racially charged comments made by campaign fundraiser and former VP candidate Geraldine Ferraro.  Mrs. Ferraro had this to say about Obama's candidacy:

"If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept."

When confronted with these remarks by the press, Mrs. Ferraro refused to back down, suggesting that she in turn was being discriminated against because she is white. 

Two things are notable here.  The first is that although Mrs. Clinton superficially distanced herself from these remarks with a few empty platitudes, she refused to sever ties with Mrs. Ferarro.  As noted by Newsweek columnist Howard Fineman on Tuesday's (3/11) edition of Countdown, in effect Mrs. Clinton is signaling her tacit approval of these remarks by failing to take more decisive action.  By contrast, the reader will also recall that 1) at a recent debate, Mrs. Clinton insisted that rejecting" Minister Farakhan's support wasn't enough - Mr. Obama must "denounce" it; and 2) Samantha Powers was promptly removed from the Obama campaign after stating that Mrs. Clinton was a "monster." 

The second issue follows from the first.  It is an uncompromising fact that any Democrat seeking election in November must maintain the affections of the African-American voting bloc, which makes up a significant percentage of the traditional Democratic coalition.  By appearing to silently endorse these remarks, Mrs. Clinton may soon find herself in a gray uniform, marching across an open field towards a determined formation of hostile African American voters who occupy the [moral] high ground and who stand poised to annihilate what is left of her campaign.  Obviously the Clinton campaign knows this, but has made the calculated decision to alienate these voters now in return for the benefit of reminding Pennsylvanians who, at least in theory may not feel comfortable voting for an African American candidate, that Obama is in fact black. 

However, because Mrs. Ferraro's comments are so patently offensive to intelligent people of any race, this strategy may backfire, and Mrs. Clinton may look up during her long march across that Pennsylvania battlefield and see a multi-racial coalition of offended voters arrayed on the high ground against her.  Obviously, a big loss in Pennsylvania spells doom for her campaign. 

Time will tell whether this blunder will be Mrs. Clinton's Gettysburg, or whether she'll have the sense to firmly order her troops to about face on that open field before they march within range of enemy gunfire.  If this is to be her Gettysburg, it is only fitting that her campaign, like that of the ill-fated Confederates, will most likely meet its end in Pennsylvania. 

Cross-posted at The Huffington Post - Off The Bus.

Posted by Tom Douglas at 10:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)